Transportation Emergency Planning Considering Uncertainty in Event Duration and Drivers' Behavior

Traffic Emergency Management deals with directing the vehicular and pedestrian traffic around traffic disruptions due to emergencies, such as accidents or flooded roadways, aiming to ensure the safety of drivers, pedestrians, and emergency responders. In this study, a scenario involving the local flooding of the A1 motorway, one of Italy’s main highways connecting north to the south, is studied. The effect of event duration and drivers’ response rate are investigated on the alternative route activation strategies. The macro and micro itineraries are established, and for different event durations and response rates, the timelines for effective route activation are evaluated. According to the results, for events shorter than 1.5 hours, there is no need for the activation of alternative routes, and the longer the event, the more alternative routes are needed to minimize the total travel time on the flooded route. In addition, increase in the response rate of drivers to use the alternative routes leads to the need to activate the micro itinerary after the activation of the macro itinerary. Furthermore, the evacuation of an urban region due to the flood scenario is studied considering different evacuation strategies and residents response time. The results indicate the importance of optimal exit point allocation and residents’ preparedness to reduce the total evacuation time.